Opening Day rotation expectations and where the Reds stand

In this series, we will dive into a different position group each week and discuss what the outlook is on who will break the Opening Day roster. Plenty of familiar faces will be returning across the club, although some unexpected names may start off in Triple-A. We’ve divided the team into five primary groups – Starting Rotation, Bullpen, Catchers, Infield, and Outfield. In this article, we will kick things off by looking at who will and won’t make the team, potential names to watch as inevitable injuries call for Triple-A replacements, and how each group stacks up against the rest of the division.

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Who makes the team

As of now, the opening day rotation should look something like this:

1. Hunter Greene

2. Graham Ashcraft

3. Frankie Montas

4. Nick Lodolo

5. Andrew Abbott

The first thing that comes to attention looking at this list is the massive upside a healthy year could produce. All five starters have flashed top of the rotation stuff, but the big key will be staying healthy and in the rotation. Aside from Abbott, everyone in this rotation has missed real time due to injury. Montas only logged one appearance last year and Lodolo made just 7 starts. When healthy though, both arms could pan out to be frontline starters for the team. Lets take a deeper look at each of these pitchers:

Hunter Greene

Hunter is coming off a sophomore campaign where he posted a 4.82 ERA with 152 strikeouts across 112 innings (22 starts). This was a slight step back from his rookie year, but it is important to keep in mind he missed nearly two months because of right hip pain. Hunter has all the talent in the world, but staying healthy will be a key factor in how effective he can be in the rotation. Expect Hunter to get the ball on opening day after his contract extension last fall.

Graham Ashcraft

Going into the 2024 season, Graham looks to slot in as the number two arm in the rotation. After a shaky start of the season, Ashcraft ended up being the best starter for the the Reds posting a 4.76 ERA with 111 strikeouts across 145.2 innings (26 starts). Ashcraft ended his season with surgery for a right big toe fracture in September, but going into camp he should be ready to go.

Frankie Montas

Frankie will be the biggest wildcard this year for the Reds. After missing nearly all of last season following shoulder surgery, it will be interesting to watch if he's on a innings limit or pitch count early on in the season. Montas seemed optimistic in interviews after his signing, but this should be a wait and see approach. If full go, Frankie has the talent to be an all star and potentially the ace the team has been looking for. However, this requires return to full form prior to his injury. As of now, Frankie will slot in as the third starter in the rotation.

Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo is another big bounce back candidate for Cincinnati. Lodolo only managed 7 starts after an episode of left calf tendinosis and a tibia stress reaction kept him sidelined beginning in April and lasting until the end of the season. Even with how hobbled he was last year, expect a bounce back season for Nick. He was arguably the best of the trio of rookie pitchers for Cincinnati in 2022 and should return to form in full health to begin this season.

Andrew Abbott

The fifth spot in the rotation will end up going to one of the rookies from last year. Based off of last years performance, Abbott has the best shot to be the last man to fill out the rotation. Abbott really impressed out of the gate last year, but visibly showed signs of wear towards the season's end bringing his ERA down to 3.87. Far and away, this was still the best on the team for starting pitchers, almost guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation if he enters camp healthy.

Who is up next

With the five starters nearly solidified going into the season, the next thing we can look at is who the next men up will be. The two that immediately come to mind are Brandon Williamson and Connor Phillips. Both played integral roles to the Reds' success last season and should immediately be elevated from Triple-A if an injury hinders the starting rotation.

The other key candidate will be new addition, Nick Martinez, who should spend the majority of the season in the bullpen. Nick will be the first choice for any bullpen days, but his starts will be more sporadic hopefully, with bullpen days typically occurring when the Triple-A replacements have just pitched. As of now this is the depth chart in case of injuries to the starting five:

6. Brandon Williamson

7. Connor Phillips

8. Nick Martinez

9. Lyon Richardson

10. Levi Stoudt

How they stack up

Going into the season, Cincinnati's rotation is built around upside. With that said, the Reds should project somewhere towards the middle of the NL Central in terms of their overall starting rotation. With the free agency additions Cincy made, their floor is much higher than last year, but so much will depend on how healthy the pitching staff can stay. Fangraphs currently has the Reds starting pitching ranked 5th in all of MLB, but its important to temper expectations given the youth and injury history that makes up their roster. For Reds fans still, there is lots to be optimistic about for the rotation entering 2024.