Reds Offseason Deep Dive - A recap of the series of signings Cincinnati has made

After a year of new arrivals, overperformers, and exceeded expectations, the Reds approached the 2023 offseason with a methodical yet aggressive strategy. Five new major league players were added to the teams' young core. In this article, we will take a look at what Cincinnati has done to continue to elevate the roster in hopes of taking the team to its first postseason since 2020.

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Biggest Needs this Offseason

Going into this offseason, there were three glaring needs for the Reds:

Frontline Starter

For the Reds to be a legit postseason contender, a big need is the emergence or acquisition of a true number one in the rotation. Out of players who started at least four games, Andrew Abbott led all Reds pitchers with an ERA of 3.87. After this, the next closest on the list was Brandon Williamson who had an ERA of 4.46. Although, earned run average doesn’t truly capture a pitcher’s effectiveness on the mound, it’s clear that an ace on the staff would go a long way towards developing a playoff caliber roster. Additionally, a veteran presence in a move like this would make a significant difference. Both Abbott and Williamson were rookies last year, and no returning starting pitcher has more than three years of experience under their belt.

Right-Handed Outfielder

One of the ways Cincinnati was most effective last season was the position flexibility that came with the addition of young talent as players were promoted to the Major League roster. Going into the 2024 season, the Reds could benefit from the addition of another right-handed outfielder. With lefty outfielders like Will Benson, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley, the Reds should excel against righty pitchers. However, an additional bat to platoon with these lefties should really improve the outlook of the team’s lineup. Spencer Steer last year began to play in the outfield, but a second bat could elevate the team’s approach against left-handed pitching.

Bullpen Help

Last year, Cincinnati heavily relied on their bullpen to get through close games. Overall, 7 different relievers ended up making at least 50 appearances across the course of the season. The Reds were 37-32 in games that were decided by one run or went into extra innings. Although a win rate like this can produce playoff teams, it is extremely taxing on the bullpen. With the uncertainty of health in the young rotation, proven bullpen arms could provide some certainty for expectations in 2024.

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Who has been Added

Emilio Pagan

The Reds kicked off free agency signing veteran reliever Emilio Pagan to a two-year, $16 million deal. Pagan posted a 2.99 ERA with 65 strikeouts last year over 69 1/3 innings. Our model projects 2 years for Pagan at $8.5 million. This overpay suggests the Reds are betting he will be able to repeat his 2023 season rather than reverting in the direction of his 4.43 ERA in 2022. Despite the price, this move should help anchor some stability in the bullpen.

Nick Martinez

Close following the Emilio Pagan signing, the Reds added Nick Martinez to a two-year, $26 million deal. Martinez had a 3.43 ERA with 106 strikeouts over 110 1/3 innings. Our model projects 2 years for Martinez at $17.9 million. Although this is a strong overpay, Martinez provides Cincinnati with great flexibility, as he can spot-start to help the rotation when injuries occur or provide extended relief innings to alleviate pressure on the pen.

Jeimer Candelario

Arguably the biggest move for the Reds so far this offseason was signing Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45 million contract. Based on our modeling, Candelario’s services are worth $44.4 million, which is right on point with this deal. The contract also includes a $15 million club option for the 2027 season which would take the deal to four years, $60 million. Jeimer provides a reliable switch-hitting bat with infield versatility to play first, second, and third base. Jeimer slashed .251/.336/.471 between the Nationals and Cubs last year with 22 home runs. The big question with this signing is overall fit. The Reds have a plethora of young infielders who need at bats, and this only furthers the confusion on who will start opening day. However, president of baseball operations, Nick Krall, has suggested Jonathan India will be taking reps in the outfield which should address the need for a right-handed outfield bat.

Frankie Montas

The biggest gamble for the Reds this offseason came with the addition of righty Frankie Montas. Although there are outstanding questions about health and ability to return to former status, Montas provides the team with the upside of a front of the rotation starter. Frankie was signed to a one-year, $14 million deal with a $20 million mutual option for 2025 ($2 million buyout). Our model projects one year of Frankie Montas at $16.4 million, which is right in line with the contract that was signed. Despite his upside, it may have made more sense to get a more reliable arm given the Reds injury history with their current starting rotation.

Brent Suter

Signing Brent Suter rounds out the Reds bullpen and most likely signals the end of their offseason barring any trades that may happen. Suter adds another lefty to combo with Sam Moll, with a different arm angle than anyone else in Cincinnati’s pen. Suter signed a one-year, $2.5 million contract with a $3.5 million club option for 2025. Our model values one-year for Suter at $3.2 million. Suter sneakily could be the best addition overall for the team. With how reliable he was in Coors, Cincinnati could have an excellent steal here.

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What's Next and Where they Stand

Last year, the Reds finished with an 82-80 record -- good for third in the NL central. The Brewers finished 10 games above the Reds in first place, followed by the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals. Many projection models predict the Reds will finish fourth, but with the moves the Reds have made this offseason, it is hard to imagine they will regress much, if at all, in 2024. The Cardinals have had an active offseason, but the Brewers appear to be exiting their window for contention, and the Pirates are still a couple years away. The big question remaining in the division is whether the Cubs will make a splash in free agency. As it stands now, the Reds are primed to at least make a push for a Wild Card spot, and potentially the division if everything comes together perfectly. A lot of 2024 will come down to how second year players perform for the Reds and if the starting rotation can stay healthy, but during this offseason, Cincinnati did a good job preparing for a push.